Oct 12, 2011

Predicting 2011 Collegiate Nationals Pt. 1

Collegiate Nationals is upon us and this year we have decided to try a scientific approach to see what the final scores may be.  Today the final top 20 list came out on NCWSA.com and we came at this from a more scientific approach. There is no reason to run the tournament now, here are the winners.

On to the Big show. We are only doing D-1, not because we did not try to do D-2 as well but scoring an entire tournament is a bit more difficult that you would think.

Here is our methodology in determining these scores, we used the various teams placements at their regional events and extrapolated out these scores into Nationals.  Now, obviously, this assumes that each skier skis the same as they did and other factors are basically ignored.  But, the concept was to simply take the teams and sort of rank them by their past performances to determine their future.

Unlike baseball or football where there are advanced metrics to help, including park factor and vorp and what not, waterskiing doesn't have anything like that, obviously.   But, here is our crack at it.

Included is also some opinion to help flesh out the story.

Teams list
CIN Cincinatti
LAX La Crosse
OHS Ohio State
UCD UC Davis
SLO Cal Poly San Luis Obisbo
ASU Arizona State Univirsity
ALA Alabama
ROL Rollins
FSC Florida Southern College
TAM Texas A&M
ULL UL Lafayette
ULM UL Monroe

Day One

Mens Slalom

ULM is very good this year and you can expect to see all 5 of their men run into 38 off.  As you can see from the scores listed below, they nab first place with 2265. We think that second will also be a lock with FSC grabbing silver. Interesting to note that despite FSC being very strong slalom team, they are second to ULM, but, those two teams seem to be in a tier all by themselves with ULL being a shade more then 300 points back in third. The fight for slalom will be 3rd to 7th and then the rest of the pack fighting for the rest of the spots.

ULM 2265
FSC 2100
ULL 1790
ASU 1690
ROL 1665
ALA 1655
TAM 1020
SLO 1010
OHS 910
UCD 830
LAX 730
CIN 570

Womens Slalom

The script is flipped in the women's bracket with our projections showing FSC taking over the top spot with ULM coming in third.  However, in this case the gulf between the one and two teams and the rest is narrowed with Rollins and ULL rounding out the top four and all within 200 points of each other.

FSC 2060
ULM 1980
ROL 1950
ULL 1890
ALA 1790
ASU 1530
SLO 1115
TAM 930
LAX 790
CIN 640
UCD 615
OHS 555

This will conclude day one, and so, based on our projections, this could be the standings

ULM 4265
FSC 4160
ULL 3680
ROL 3615
ALA 3445
ASU 3220
SLO 2125
TAM 1950
UCD 1525
LAX 1520
OHS 1385
CIN 1210

Coming soon will be Day 2 with Men's Tricks and Women's Jump.

If you have differing opinions or people to watch for or anything that could change our predictions let us know!

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